A friend of mine wrote me the following email about the economy from the trucker/trucking point of view. Interesting:
While traveling around the country by Jeep, I spent a little time
listening to Trucker Radio. The current diesel costs and the impact on
the economy were hot topics of discussion. I had a bit of revelation
that there are probably 1000s of business models that are only viable
due to cheap fuel. The interesting thing about fuel is that the costs
compound for every material/ingredient in a consumer good or
manufactured food.Some questions that are stuck in my head is… How expensive does fuel
have to become before locally produced goods become competitive? Will
there be a return of the “family farm”? Could local micro-factories
inspired by web economics and sustainable practices be profitable?The tools that I’m missing are ones that help me as a entrepreneur
identify niche goods and markets that are ready to be brought home.
How do we identify the commonality of goods and services in our
everyday lives? Can we use modern concepts of software engineering
like DRY and YAGNI to identify potential business ideas?If we could analyze incoming goods and their contents like data
packets, we should be able to perform some interesting compression.Just some thoughts…
The marketplace itself will point the way to local delivery market niches.
Existing market analysis tools can tell us where the major players on the big board stock exchanges are at any time, and where their weaknesses are.
Such software tools are expensive though, and not designed for what you’re proposing.
Maybe just looking at consumer indexes will reveal mass-market weaknesses to suggest holes which need filling; market driven demand.
In the meantime, enterpreneurs will have to launch armys of salesment, and reinvent marketing strategies themselves.
Major changes in fleet vehicular power involve life-cycles spanning 5-10 years for return on investment, but the services & conversion market can produce immediate results.
Fuel prices are fluctuating, and the summer peak has passed, but this is not the end of high gas costs.
It’s time that fleet managers look into alternatives like CNG, and biofuels.
Some would argue that’s going backwards” Diesel built his first engine to run on peanut oil, and Jimmy Carter could have saved us all, but they were ahead of their time and promoted these things badly.
Just looking at what’s going on out there, and pick a few likely alternatives: Hybrid trucks, or multi-fuel options, biodiesels from waste oil, or sawgrass (not corn). I would suggest monitoring, or even backing one of each, and market them to Fleet managers. Bulk deployments will lower per-vehicle conversions, and promote wider acceptance of each.
Then track the progress of these, and competing alternatives. Once a few show good profit margin combined with reliable sustainability, over a consistant progression of fiscal quarters, then savvy VC can back the fast dogs in that race.